In this year’s NBA Draft, the Toronto Raptors are banking on the right stroke of luck at the lottery draw on Sunday, hoping to secure a promising player who can help redefine the team’s trajectory. The class is widely considered weak, but there are still prospects who could prove to be game-changers for the Raptors, even if they’re not projected to reach the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo or Rudy Gobert, two future Hall of Famers picked from a seemingly lackluster 2013 class.
The NBA Draft is a lottery in every sense of the word. Teams often find hidden gems later in the first round while some highly-touted early picks fail to deliver. This year, the Raptors enter the lottery after the Jakob Poeltl trade with the San Antonio Spurs left them in an interesting position. If their pick falls outside the top six, it will be surrendered to the Spurs, leaving Toronto with a 45.8% chance of retaining their choice.
Raptors’ Odds and Their Position in the Draft
The Raptors ended the season with the sixth-worst record, placing them at a crossroads:
- Pick 1: 9% odds
- Pick 2: 9.2%
- Pick 3: 9.4%
- Pick 4: 9.6%
- Pick 6: 8.6%
- Pick 7-10 (lose pick): 54.2%
Should the pick fall outside the top six, the same protections carry into 2025, and if it doesn’t convey to the Spurs by 2026, Toronto will owe them two second-round picks instead.
NBA Lists Alexandre Sarr as No. 1 Draft Prospect in Composite Ranking https://t.co/I0rNnFnxjx #Portland #TrailBlazers #RipCity
— Ron Bohning (@RonBohning) May 5, 2024
Hope Amid Uncertainty
While the Raptors remain uncertain about their roster’s long-term direction, team president Masai Ujiri remains optimistic. “We get a high pick this year (and) next year we play ball and see where we stand,” he expressed, reflecting on the unpredictable nature of the lottery. “If you’re not picking high next year, then your team is good, or your team is progressing the right way.”
The Raptors will undoubtedly rely on Scottie Barnes, their North Star, to guide their future, but their core still needs more structure and clarity. The team could contend for a Play-In spot next year, yet without major roster changes, a repeat trip to the lottery is more likely.
Balancing Financial Implications with Opportunity
With significant contracts already allocated to Barnes and Poeltl, the financial implications of a high pick must be carefully weighed against the opportunity presented. A top-four pick would earn between $9.1 and $12.6 million, while a sixth pick would earn around $7.5 million.
The Raptors must balance these costs while aiming to secure a rookie who can contribute without straining the team’s budget. Moreover, if they can retain their pick this year, the restrictions on future trading could hinder the team’s ability to be aggressive in reshaping their roster.
Raptors’ Draft Strategy: Top Three or Bust?
The Raptors are still hopeful that their scouting and development programs can help them secure a top-three pick. Anything less could lead to the loss of their pick, ultimately benefiting their roster-building in the long term.
With consensus lacking on the potential of the 2024 draft class, Raptors fans should hold their breath for Sunday and hope the team secures a prime position to enhance their budding core.
