There are going to be some great games in Week 8 of NFL action. But the NFL odds show some interesting betting lines for a few games which make us want to take a closer look. Let’s have a peek at the Thursday Night Football showdown between the Skins and Vikes.
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings
Bookmakers in Vegas and at online shops around the world have listed the Purple People Eaters as 15.5-point favorites over the Washington Redskins. When you look at some of the superficial stats, the number kind of makes sense, but the number itself was the first thing to catch my eye.
Why open at 15.5? Just shy of a touchdown and three field goals? Not 16.5, which would be two touchdowns and a field goal … And now the public has moved that line from 15.5 to 16 at most spots.
The Redskins held the rolling 49ers to just 9 points of offense. Previously San Fransisco put up 20 on the Rams, 31 on the Browns, 41 on the Bengals and 31 on the Bucs. The Vikings have found their groove over the last couple of weeks, but they were held to just 16 by the Green Bay Packers and just 6 by the Chicago Bears.
Yes. They did put up 38 on the Eagles and 42 on the Lions on Sunday. But if the Washington Redskins play the defensive ball as they did against the Niners, the Vikings won’t be able to run up that kind of score.
The Matchup Stats
The Skins play better defense on the road than they typically do at home. That said, some of their home stats are blown out by getting smashed by the best team in the league.
- The Skins Road D is allowing 24 points per game
- The Vikings Home Offense is putting up 33.3 per game
- The Skins allow 241.7 passing yards per game on the road
- The Vikes pass for 198.67 per game at home
- The Skins allow 123.7 rushing yards per game on the road
- The Vikings rush for 168.33 per game at home (No. 3)
- The Redskins are scoring 15.7 points per game on the highway
- The Vikings are allowing 15.33 points per game at US Bank Stadium
- The Skins pass for 219 yards per game as the visiting team
- Minnesota allows 259.33 passing yards per game at home
- Washington only rushes for 76 yards per game on the road
- The Vikings only allow 89.7 yards per game on the ground at home
When we look closer at the home and away averages, these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses seem to line up. We should expect the Redskins to put up around 15 points.
That is what they average and it’s also what Minnesota allows. Furthermore, the Vikings are elite at stopping the run but they are No. 21 at stopping the pass at home. Conversely, the Redskins are No. 21 in passing yards gained on the road. So we should expect them to put up close to that number that Minnesota allows.
Offensively, Minnesota should hit their home averages … but not if the Skins play like they did on Sunday.
And typically TNF games tend to be a bit sloppier on the offensive side of things, due to short prep and lack of rest. I see this game as a 14-28 affair in favor of Minnesota. Take the Vikings for your survivor pool, but you might want to consider the Redskins to cover the number, especially since it may move to 16.5 or 17 by Thursday night.