Rudy Gobert The Unseen and Underrated Hero of the Minnesota Timberwolves

All corners of the sports media ecosystem are attacking Rudy Gobert as the Minnesota Timberwolves face elimination in the Western Conference finals. On ESPN, Kendrick Perkins called his vote for Gobert for Defensive Player of the Year an “embarrassment” and the “biggest regret in [his] media career.”

On his podcast, Gilbert Arenas said that Rudy Gobert should give his joint-record four DPOY trophies back. On TNT, guest panelist Draymond Green—an unbiased Gobert observer, surely—shouted, “Rudy sucks” on live TV.

The disdain for Rudy Gobert extends between the lines, as well. The four-time All-NBA honoree was voted the most overrated player in this year’s Athletic player survey. And Luka Doncic appeared to take particular delight in trash-talking the flailing 7-foot Frenchman after beating him in isolation to sink a 3-pointer that won Game 2 of the conference finals.

The Crucial Impact of Rudy Gobert

Yet, despite all the Sturm und Drang, despite all the memes and mockery, Rudy Gobert is an incredibly valuable member of the Minnesota squad, which is making its first conference finals appearance in 20 years.

The subject of a much-derided trade is now the linchpin of the league’s best defense and a central component of its winning formula. He checks off the most important box for an athlete: He makes his team better, all the time.

Among Wolves rotation players, Gobert had the best on/off differential in the regular season. He also had the best on/off differential in the first round against the Suns. And he had the second-best differential in the second round against the Nuggets (behind Mike Conley), even though he missed Minnesota’s 26-point win in Game 2 of that series. In the other six games against the defending champs, the Wolves had a raw point differential of plus-49 with Gobert on the court and minus-39 with Gobert off.

Rudy Gobert’s On/Off Differentials in 2023-24

That trend has even held firm as Minnesota has fallen behind 3-1 in the conference finals. The Timberwolves are still winning his minutes against the Mavericks; in fact, Gobert is the only Wolves starter with a positive point differential in the series, as Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns have struggled to match Dallas’s star production.

if Rudy Gobert wins DPOY over Wemby I'm gonna post this clip on all the Rudy voters for every post they make pic.twitter.com/WRWikmBO25

— Matt Lerma (@MattLerma_PS) April 10, 2024

Analyzing Timberwolves Starters in the Conference Finals

These aren’t obscure statistics cherry-picked to paint a rosy picture of Rudy Gobert’s impact. They are foundational concepts that apply to basketball players at any level: Did your team play better with you on or off the court? Should you play or ride the bench?

In Rudy Gobert’s case, the on/off data is clear: Minnesota isn’t trailing the Mavericks because of Gobert, but rather because its league-best defense has cratered without the DPOY in the middle. Dallas is scoring 109.9 points per 100 possessions when Gobert is on the court in this series; that’s the rough equivalent of the Wizards’ 25th-ranked output in the regular season. But when Gobert is off the court, the Mavericks’ offensive rating rockets up to 127.4—five points better than the Celtics’ record-setting regular-season mark.

In theory, Rudy Gobert should be a replaceable member of Minnesota’s rotation, especially because Tim Connelly built a roster with three starting-quality centers. But in practice, neither Towns nor Naz Reid has capably defended the rim without Rudy Gobert as a security blanket. The Mavericks are shooting a blistering 83 percent at the rim when Gobert is off the court, per PBP Stats.

Rudy Gobert’s Defensive Prowess in the Postseason

Against the narrative headwinds that have assailed Rudy Gobert for years, he has a long track record of improving his team’s performance in the postseason. In the playoffs in the 2020s, Rudy Gobert’s teams have been 14.6 points better with him on the floor versus off, based on an analysis of Cleaning the Glass data. That’s the sixth-best mark out of 56 players with at least 1,000 playoff minutes in the past half decade. Here’s a chart showing every All-NBA player on that list and how well Rudy Gobert stacks up against his celebrated peers.

Playoff On/Off Differentials for All-NBA Players in 2020s